Likeliness

stats
survey
Published

March 10, 2026

How likely is ‘likely’?

Load Packages

require(pacman)
p_load(tidytuesdayR, tidyverse, janitor, here, trashpanda, magick, ggridges)

Load Data

tuesdata <- tidytuesdayR::tt_load('2026-03-10')
absolute_judgements <- tuesdata$absolute_judgements
pairwise_comparisons <- tuesdata$pairwise_comparisons
respondent_metadata <- tuesdata$respondent_metadata

Plot

# Get list of ordered statuses (by median?)

term_list <- absolute_judgements |> 
  summarise(med_term = median(probability),
            .by = term) |> 
  arrange(med_term) |> 
  pull(term)
  
  
plot <- absolute_judgements |> 
  select(term, probability) |> 
  ggplot() +
  geom_density_ridges(aes(x = probability, y = term), fill = "#0AC260", alpha = 0.5) +
  scale_y_discrete(limits = term_list) +
  coord_cartesian(expand = FALSE, clip = "off") +
  theme_cole(remove_grid = TRUE, base_size = 17) +
  add_caption_cwb() +
  labs(x = "Perceived Probability", y = "Probability Term",
       title = "How Likely is 'Likely'?",
       subtitle = str_wrap("Based on responses from 5,000+ participants, some probability phrases show clear separation in perceived meaning while other common probability phrases show substantial overlap in perceived meaning, revealing ambiguity in how people interpret verbal likelihoods.")) +
  theme(axis.text = element_text(face = "bold"),
        plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0),
        plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0))



# Save and display images
current_dir <- dirname(knitr::current_input())
plot_name <- "likeliness.png"

ggsave(plot = plot, 
       dpi = "screen",
       width = 14,
       height = 17,
       device = ragg::agg_png,
       filename = file.path(current_dir, plot_name))


# Read the big plot
img <- image_read(file.path(current_dir, plot_name))

# Force 16:9 aspect ratio with minimal padding
# Target size: 1200x675 px (16:9)
img_card <- image_scale(img, "1200x675")           # scale to fit inside 16:9
img_card <- image_extent(
  img_card,
  geometry = "1200x675",
  gravity = "center"
)

# Save as card preview
image_write(img_card, path = file.path(current_dir, "preview.png"))

knitr::include_graphics(
  file.path(current_dir, plot_name)
)

References

cite_packages(format = "rmd")

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  2. Ooms J (2025). magick: Advanced Graphics and Image-Processing in R. doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.magick https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.magick, R package version 2.9.0, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=magick.

  3. Baril C (????). trashpanda: Cole’s Personal Collection of R Functions, Themes, and Palettes. R package version 0.0.1, https://colebaril.github.io/trashpanda/.

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  5. Firke S (2024). janitor: Simple Tools for Examining and Cleaning Dirty Data. doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.janitor https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.janitor, R package version 2.2.1, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=janitor.

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  8. Wickham H (2025). stringr: Simple, Consistent Wrappers for Common String Operations. doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.stringr https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.stringr, R package version 1.6.0, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=stringr.

  9. Wickham H, François R, Henry L, Müller K, Vaughan D (2023). dplyr: A Grammar of Data Manipulation. doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.dplyr https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.dplyr, R package version 1.1.4, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=dplyr.

  10. Wickham H, Henry L (2026). purrr: Functional Programming Tools. doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.purrr https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.purrr, R package version 1.2.1, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=purrr.

  11. Wickham H, Hester J, Bryan J (2025). readr: Read Rectangular Text Data. doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.readr https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.readr, R package version 2.1.6, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=readr.

  12. Wickham H, Vaughan D, Girlich M (2025). tidyr: Tidy Messy Data. doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.tidyr https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.tidyr, R package version 1.3.2, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=tidyr.

  13. Müller K, Wickham H (2026). tibble: Simple Data Frames. doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.tibble https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.tibble, R package version 3.3.1, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=tibble.

  14. Wickham H (2016). ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis. Springer-Verlag New York. ISBN 978-3-319-24277-4, https://ggplot2.tidyverse.org.

  15. Wickham H, Averick M, Bryan J, Chang W, McGowan LD, François R, Grolemund G, Hayes A, Henry L, Hester J, Kuhn M, Pedersen TL, Miller E, Bache SM, Müller K, Ooms J, Robinson D, Seidel DP, Spinu V, Takahashi K, Vaughan D, Wilke C, Woo K, Yutani H (2019). “Welcome to the tidyverse.” Journal of Open Source Software, 4(43), 1686. doi:10.21105/joss.01686 https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01686.

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